How the signals are calculated
Every BUY, HOLD or SELL on this site comes from the same fixed set of rules. Nothing is hand-picked and nothing is guessed. This page shows exactly what goes into a verdict so you can judge it for yourself.
1. The data behind a verdict
Each share is read from live public market data: a year of daily closing prices and trading volume, the company's reported financial figures, and the level of its home index. US company results are read straight from the filings the company sends to the SEC, so revenue, profit and earnings per share are the published numbers, not estimates.
Prices refresh automatically while a page is open, so the numbers you see track the market rather than sitting still.
2. Eleven factors, each scored and weighted
Every factor is scored from −2 (strongly negative) to +2 (strongly positive), then multiplied by its weight. The weights below are the defaults; you can change any of them on the Settings page.
7-day momentum
weight 0.4How far the share price has moved over the last week.
Catches short bursts, but on its own it is the weakest evidence, so it carries a small weight.
Three-month trend
weight 1.2The direction of the price over roughly 63 trading days.
A share in a steady climb is far more likely to keep climbing than one that jumped last Tuesday.
Long momentum
weight 1.2The size of the three-month move, not just its direction.
Separates a genuine run from a drift.
Beating the index
weight 1.0The share's move compared with the FTSE 100 or S&P 500 over the same window.
Rising with the whole market is not a signal. Rising faster than it is.
Volume confirmation
weight 0.4Whether recent trading volume is above or below its own average.
A move on heavy volume has real money behind it; a move on thin volume often reverses.
Moving averages
weight 0.6Where the short average sits against the longer one.
The classic crossover check for a change of direction.
RSI
weight 1.6Whether the share looks overbought or oversold.
Flags stretched moves that are due a pause.
Valuation
weight 1.0The price-to-earnings ratio against the measured median of real sector peers.
Paying far more than the sector for the same earnings is a risk, not an opportunity.
Earnings and growth
weight 1.2Reported earnings growth, revenue growth and whether results beat forecasts.
Published results are the hardest evidence available, so this factor carries the most weight of the financial group.
Debt and leverage
weight 0.5Debt against equity, plus the current ratio.
A heavily borrowed company has less room to absorb a bad quarter.
Quality
weight 1.0Profit margin, return on equity and free cash flow as a share of revenue.
Distinguishes a business that converts sales into cash from one that does not.
3. Turning the scores into a verdict
The weighted scores are added together, then adjusted for how jumpy the share has been: the same score on a wild mover counts for less than on a steady one. That final number decides the verdict.
- Above +1.2 — BUY
- Below −1.2 — SELL
- Anything in between — HOLD
4. The buy quality gate
A rising price alone cannot produce a BUY. When the company's reported figures are available, the share must also be growing its earnings and trading at a sensible valuation against its sector peers. If it fails either test the verdict drops to HOLD and the reason is shown beside it on the dashboard. You can loosen or switch the gate off in Settings.
5. What the confidence percentage means
Confidence is how far the final score sits from the neutral middle, scaled for the share's volatility. A verdict that only just crossed the line shows a low percentage; one where nearly every factor agrees shows a high one. It is a measure of how clearly the rules point one way — not a probability of profit.
Confidence sits next to every verdict on the watchlists and the dashboard, so you can see at a glance which signals are strongest.
6. Checking the model against history
The backtest replays the same rules day by day over past prices and compares the result with simply holding the share. Settings also offers a suggested set of weights found by searching for the combination that performed best over the last six months, which you can apply or ignore.
Not financial advice. Signals are generated with fixed rules from delayed public prices and reported company financials. Do your own research before trading.